A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
